The impact of ESG factors imbalance on the social consequences of technological unemployment
Keywords:
technological unemployment, ESG imbalance, task-based approach, non-traditional employment, vulnerability index, scenario analysis, Republic of BelarusAbstract
The purpose of this article is to analyze the impact of the imbalance of ESG factors (predominant funding of the environmental component at the expense of the social component) on the social consequences of technological unemployment in the context of digital transformation, and to offer a scenario analysis for the Republic of Belarus.
Materials and Methods. The theoretical basis is the approach proposed by D. Acemoglu and P. Restrepo, which distinguishes between the effects of labor displacement and reinstatement. Belstat data served as the empirical basis. Quantitative analysis methods (calculation of the author's vulnerability index (Itech)) and scenario modeling were used.
Results. The share of routine and mixed segments within non-traditional employment was 91.3%. The vulnerability index Itech = 0.48 means that for every 100 officially unemployed in Belarus, there are 48 people employed in vulnerable segments. Scenario analysis showed that maintaining the ESG imbalance leads to an increase in Itech to 0.8-1.0, income polarization, and social tensions, while targeted correction of the imbalance (linking «green» financing with retraining programs) stabilizes Itech at 0.4-0.5 and ensures sustainable growth without social costs.
Conclusion. The ESG imbalance is not the root cause of technological unemployment, but it is a significant institutional factor in its negative consequences. For Belarus, as a socially oriented state, it is recommended to include social requirements in the criteria for "green" financing and implement monitoring «buffer zone» of employment.
References
Acemoglu, D. task-based approach to inequality / D. Acemoglu, P. Restrepo // Oxford Open Economics. – 2024. – Vol. 3, Issue Supplement_1. – P. i906–i929. – DOI: 10.1093/ooec/odad082.
Kapeliushnikov, R. The phantom of technological unemployment / R. Kapeliushnikov // Russian Journal of Economics. – 2019. – Vol. 5. – Issue 1. – P. 88–116. – URL: https://doi.org/10.32609/j.ruje.5.35507 (дата обращения: 26.03.2026).
SparkCo, A.I. Technological Unemployment and Social Safety Net Adequacy : Systemic Risk and Resilience Report / A.I. SparkCo. – 2025. – P. 1-10. – URL: https://sparkco.ai/blog/technological-unemployment-social-safety-net-adequacy (дата обращения: 10.03.2026).
OECD. Trends Shaping Education 2025. – Paris : OECD Publishing, 2025. – 123 p. – URL: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/trends-shaping-education-2025_ee6587fd-en.html (дата обращения: 10.03.2026).
ILO. Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. – Geneva : International Labour Organization, 2025. – 45 p. – URL: https://www.ilo.org/publications/generative-ai-and-jobs-refined-global-index-occupational-exposure (дата обращения: 10.03.2026).
Fed officials warn AI could drive structural unemployment // The Economic Times. – 2026. – P. 1-2. – URL: https://hrme.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/ai-revolution-fed-officials-warn-of-structural-unemployment-risks/128960449 (дата обращения: 10.03.2026).
Белстат. Уровень занятости и безработицы в Республике Беларусь : [стат. бюл.] / Национальный статистический комитет Республики Беларусь. – Мн.: Белстат, 2025. – 1 с. – URL: https://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-pdf/oficial_statistika/2025/zanyatost_bezrabotica_2025_12.pdf (дата обращения: 10.03.2026).
Белстат. Нестандартная занятость в Республике Беларусь : [стат. сб.] / Национальный статистический комитет Республики Беларусь. – Мн.: Белстат, 2025. – 2 с. – URL: https://www.belstat.gov.by/upload-belstat/upload-belstat-pdf/oficial_statistika/2025/nestandart_zaniatost-2025.pdf (дата обращения: 10.04.2026).
Thomas, E. Mining’s forgotten ‘S’: has decarbonisation obscured the social angle of ESG? / E. Thomas // Mining Technology : [сайт]. – 2025. – 30 Oct. – URL: https://www.mining-technology.com/newsletters/minings-forgotten-s-has-decarbonisation-obscured-the-social-angle-of-esg/ (дата обращения: 27.03.2026).
Why companies are falling short on social impact – and how to fix it // UNSW BusinessThink, 2025 : [сайт]. – URL: https://www.businessthink.unsw.edu.au/articles/corporate-social-impact-reporting-australia (дата обращения: 27.03.2026).
World Resources Institute. The Elephant in the Boardroom: People Are Missing in Corporate Supply Chain Goals / World Re-sources Institute. – 2025. – URL: https://www.wri.org/research/elephant-boardroom-people-are-missing-corporate-supply-chain-goals (дата обращения: 27.03.2026).
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
he author provides the Editorial Board of the journal for the entire duration of the exclusive rights to the Work the following rights:
1. the right to reproduce the Work (publication, publication, duplication, duplication or other reproduction of the Work) without restriction of copies. In addition, each copy of the Work must contain the name of the author of the Work;
2. the right to distribute the Work in any way;
3. the right to be included in the composite work;
4. the right to be communicated to the public;
5. the use of metadata (title, name of the author (copyright holder), annotations, bibliographic materials, etc.) of the Works by distributing and making available to the public, processing and systematization, as well as inclusion in various databases and information systems.
6. the right to transfer, on a contractual basis, the rights partially or fully obtained under this contract to third parties without payment to the Author of remuneration.
The author transfers the rights to the Editorial Board under this Agreement on the basis of a non-exclusive license.
The editorial staff is obliged to observe the copyrights provided for by the current legislation, the rights of the Author, as well as to protect them and take all possible measures to prevent copyright infringement by third parties.
The territory in which the use of rights to the Works is allowed is not limited.
The author also provides the Editorial Board with the right to store and process the following personal data with no time limit:
• Full Name;
• Date of Birth;
• education information;
• information about the place of work and position;
• information on the availability of published works of literature, science and art.
Personal data are provided for their storage and processing in various databases and information systems, their inclusion in analytical and statistical reporting, the creation of reasonable interrelationships of objects of science, literature and art with personal data, etc.
The editorial board has the right to transfer the specified data for processing and storage to third parties, subject to notification of such a fact with the provision of information about a third party (name and address) to the Author.
The withdrawal of consent to the storage and processing of personal data is made by the Author by sending a written notice to the Editorial Board.
The author and the Editorial Board of the journal bear, according to the current legislation of the Republic of Belarus, property and other legal responsibility for non-fulfillment or improper fulfillment of their obligations.
The Party that improperly performed or did not fulfill its obligations is obliged to indemnify the losses incurred by the other Party, including lost profits.
All disputes and disagreements of the Parties arising from the terms of this Agreement shall be settled by negotiation, and if they fail, the indicated disputes shall be settled in court in accordance with the current legislation of the Republic of Belarus.
The termination of this agreement is possible at any time by mutual consent of the Parties, with the obligatory signing of the relevant agreement by the Parties.
Termination of this agreement unilaterally is possible in cases stipulated by the current legislation, or by a court decision.
In all that is not provided by this agreement, the Parties are guided by the norms of the current legislation of the Republic of Belarus.
