Развитие регионов Беларуси: тренды, проблемы регулирования и сценарии
Abstract
На основе анализа статистических данных обоснованы выводы о сложившихся за годы независимости Беларуси трендах в развитии регионов страны. Для выяснения причин формирования дисбалансов регионального развития использована выдвинутая Дж. Стиглером гипотеза захвата, адаптированная к анализу регионов. В качестве доказательства выводов по результатам исследования приведены данные по созданию условий для функционирования университетов, учитывая их ключевую роль в развитии экономики регионов как с точки зрения научного обеспечения перехода экономики на новый технологический уклад, так и формировании институциональной среды. Описан сценарий развития событий, основанный на формирующейся устойчивой тенденции отставания регионов в экономическом развитии от столицы, что может породить значительные диспропорции в экономике и, как следствие, проблемы в социально–экономическом положении страны. С высокой долей вероятности его реализация может привести к ослаблению контроля государства над своей территорией, что создает потенциальную угрозу утраты ее части с учетом складывающегося уровня геополитической нестабильности в Восточной Европе. Based on the analysis of statistical data, the conclusions about the trends of the development of the regions of Belarus during the years of independence are made. The hypothesis of regulatory capture (Stigler), adapted to the analysis of regions, was used to clarify the reasons for the formation of imbalances of regional development. Data on the creation of conditions for the functioning of universities is used as evidence of the findings of the study, taking into account their key role in the development of the economy of the regions, both as scientific support for the transition of the economy to a new technological structure and the formation of an institutional environment. The scenario of the development of events is described, which is based on the emerging stable tendency of regions lagging behind in the economic development from the capital city, which can lead to significant disproportions in the economy and, as a result, problems in the social and economic situation in the country. With a high degree of probability, its further implementation may lead to a weakening of state control over its territory, which creates a potential threat of losing part of it, given the emerging level of geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe.References
Регионы Республики Беларусь. Социально–экономические показатели. Национальный статистический комитет. Т.1., Минск, 2017.
Режим доступа : http://www.ceres.ro/september/declaration.htm.
Country Data Report for Belarus, 1996–2014. World Governance Indicators [Electronic resource]. Mode of access : http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/pdf/c25.pdf. – Date of access : 24.04.2016.
Система образования Республики Беларусь в цифрах. – Минск, 2016. – 68 c.
Система образования Республики Беларусь в цифрах. – Минск, 2017. – 60 с.
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