Empirical Research on Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution Based on VAR Model.
Abstract
В статье рассматривается статистическая ВАР–модель (векторная авторегрессия), а также применение функции отклика импульса и разложения различия, чтобы выявить долговременные динамические взаимосвязи между ВВП на душу населения и тремя индикаторами видов загрязнения окружающей среды. На примере провинции Хубэй (КНР) за период 1999–2009 г.г. видно: с одной стороны, экономический рост – важнейшая причина, воздействующая на изменение загрязнения окружающей среды, а с другой стороны, увеличение промышленных отходов есть функция, обратная экономическому росту. Таким образом, мы наблюдаем взаимное влияние этих индикаторов друг на друга. Следовательно, региональные власти должны постоянно уделять повышенное внимание проблемам охраны окружающей среды, даже в период ускоренного экономического развития. = We establish the VAR (Vector Autoregressive ) model, and apply the method of impulse response function and variance decomposition to make up long–term dynamic relationship between per capita GDP and three kinds of pollution indicator of Hubei Province during 1999–2009.The results show that: on the one hand, economic growth is an important reason for the impact of environmental pollution changes in Hubei Province, on the other hand, the increase of industrial waste has inverse function to economic growth. So we should pay more attention to environmental problems at the time of economic development. Keywords: Economic Growth; Environmental Pollution; VAR; Impulse Response Function; Variance Decomposition.References
Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics. Hubei Statistical Yearbook [M]. China statistics Press, 1999–2009.
Gao, Tiemei. Econometric Analysis and Modeling–Eviews Application and Example[M] / Gao Tiemei // Tsinghua University Press, 2006.
Koop, G. Impulse Response Analysis in Non–linear Multivariate Models [J] / G. Koop, M. Pesaran, S. Potter // Journal of Econometrics, 1996(74).
Pesaran, M. Generalize Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models[J] / M. Pesaran, Y. Shin // Ecomomic Letters, 1998(58).
Peng, Wen–bin. Empirical Research on Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth in Hunan Province [J] / Peng Wen–bin, Tian Yin–hua // Journal of Xiangtan University, 2011,35(1).
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