Воздействие финансово-экономического кризиса 2008-2011 гг. на циклические колебания в банковской системе и в экономике Беларуси.
Abstract
В статье проводится анализ воздействия финансово-экономического кризиса 2008-2011 гг. на циклические колебания в банковской системе и в экономике Беларуси. Выделяется система факторов, оказывающая существенное влияние на макроэкономические диспропорции на денежных рынках, которая вызывает системные дисфункции. Доказывается, что устанавливаемые высокие темповые показатели экономического роста игнорируют проблемы неадекватности уровней цен на деньги (валютный курс, процентные ставки) реальным условиям воспроизводства. Уязвимость экономики к внутренним и внешним шокам увеличивается при реализации модели экономического роста в рамках глубоких макроэкономических дисбалансов, без приведения в соответствие про-порций между доходами и расходами субъектов, высокими заимствованиями экономики страны и недостаточной факторной производительностью ее субъектов, между приростом банковских кредитов и ростом ВВП. = In the article the analysis of the impact of 2008 – 2011 financial and economic crisis on cyclical fluctuations in the banking system and Belarusian economy is made. The system of the domestic factors which have much impact on macroeconomic disparity in the money market, entailing systematic dysfunctions, is described. The author shows that high target quantitative indicators of the economic growth are brushed aside the issues of incompatibility between the price for money (currency rate, interest rates) and real conditions of reproduction. The vulnerability of economy to internal and external shocks is increasing while the model of economic growth, performing in the context of large macroeconomic gaps, without bringing in balance proportions between revenues and expenditures of the entities, high borrowing of the national economy and lack of factor efficiency of its subjects, between increase of bank loans and the growth of GDP is realizing.References
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