Оценка вероятности исполнения гарантийных обязательств государственными органами по кредитам, выданным на реализацию инвестиционных проектов
Abstract
В статье рассмотрены результаты проводимой инвестиционной политики государства, направленной на предоставление государственных гарантий по кредитам и внешним займам, выданным национальными и зарубежными банками на реализацию инвестиционных проектов. Анализ статистических данных позволил выявить негативное влияние роста объемов предоставленных гарантий на расходы республиканского бюджета и обслуживание внутреннего государственного долга. В качестве инструмента по отбору и прогнозированию денежных потоков, доступных для обслуживания долга, предлагается построение диаграммы зон рисков по проекту, на основании которой можно будет определять периоды реализации проекта, в которые наиболее высока вероятность исполнения гарантийных обязательств Правительства Республики Беларусь. The results of investment policy aimed at provision of state guarantees on bank loans which were given for the realization of investment projects are considered in the article. The negative impact of volumes of provided government guarantees on expenditures of the republic budget and internal government debt has been revealed due to the analysis of statistical data. The diagram of risk zones is proposed as an instrument of selection and forecast of cash flows available for debt service; it would also be effective in estimation of project periods when the probability of calls on the guarantees was.References
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