Forecasting of the of lethal and non-fatal outcomes in senior hypertensive patients
Keywords:
hypertension, elderly people, forecastingAbstract
An integrated approach to the assessment of the health status of older patients with current positions of geriatric syndromes and defined contribution syndrome of cognitive impairment, anxiety-depressive syndrome in the medium-term forecast of the lethal and non-fatal outcomes. Study of survival using the Kaplan-Meier showed statistically significant differences in the examined patients with hypertension in older age groups who are serving on a cottage territorial center of social security of the population, compared with respondents unorganized population (criterion Gehana-Wilcoxon p = 0,04; p = Cox 0,05). The probability of lethal outcomes in patients with hypertension in older age groups has increased 10, 13 times (95% CI 1,2-81,8, p <0.05) if the patient is not taking antihypertensive medications. The presence of cognitive dysfunction syndrome (clock drawing test less than 8 points) increases the risk of death by 1,36 times, anxious-depressive state (geriatric depression scale more than 5 points) – 1,12 times. A model of logistic regression predicting the likely medium-term development of the lethal outcomes in patients with hypertension in older age groups with regard to the main geriatric syndromes is constructed. The sensitivity of the model was 89%, specificity - 94%.
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